Dear Reader,

The IMF doesn't issue warnings like this often, but when they do... you need to listen.

For your entire life, debt crises have always happened anywhere but America.

Italy in the 90s. Argentina in 2001. Greece in 2009.

America was always safe…

But now the IMF is projecting that by 2031, US debt will climb to 140% of GDP.

That's higher than Greece's debt was when their entire economy collapsed.

And when their system broke, it was chaos.

Retirees' pensions got slashed 40% overnight. People who saved for 40 years, who followed all the rules, watched their retirement go up in smoke.

It only took 24 months.

Now imagine that coming to America.

When Greece broke, the EU swooped in with $300 billion in emergency bailouts. Greece was fine.

But when America crosses that line? There's no one bigger to save us. We ARE the emergency bailout for the rest of the world.

And we're following Greece's exact playbook right now.

I'm Tan Gera, ex-Wall Street investment banker and CFA© Charterholder.

I walked away because I saw how the system really works. Banks protect themselves first. Politicians kick the can. And regular folks like you are left holding the bag.

That's why my team now teaches over 4,500 members to build what we call a "financial firewall"... a parallel savings system that operates completely outside the Federal Reserve's control.

You can't fix $38 trillion in debt. You can't stop Congress from spending.

But you CAN control how much of your wealth stays exposed to the fallout.

Click here to learn how to build your financial firewall before 2030 →

The IMF projects 140% debt-to-GDP by 2031. That's less than 60 months away.

To your sovereignty,
Tan Gera, CFA©
Decentralized Masters

P.S. When Greece hit 130% debt-to-GDP, pensions were slashed 40% overnight. America is projected to hit 140% by 2031. Watch how to protect your retirement before we cross that line →

Defense Earnings Show Readiness Now and Modernization Ahead

Written by Chris Markoch. Published: 7/25/2026.

Several of the nation's top defense contractors reported earnings against a backdrop of the U.S. conflict with Iran, which appears to be entering a new phase. Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, lawmakers are trying to secure funding to address the military's immediate needs while still grappling with the Trump administration’s longer-term goal of modernizing the military.

This gives investors two stories to consider. Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), and RTX Corporation (NYSE: RTX) all posted strong quarters this week. But the numbers tell only half of the story.

One story focuses on readiness right now, as the Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint and U.S. forces remain engaged with Iran. The other is about modernization: the decade-long buildout of next-generation aircraft, interceptors, and autonomous systems.

Investors watching this earnings season need to weigh both. A company can look strong on paper while still being weighted toward one side of the story. Here's why investors can trust these three defense contractors in either scenario.

Lockheed, Northrop, and RTX Build Record Backlogs After Earnings

All three contractors delivered the kind of quarter that makes a bull case easy to write. Lockheed Martin posted $20.1 billion in sales and $7.94 in earnings per share (EPS). Its book-to-bill ratio hit 3.2x, indicating that new orders outpaced shipments by more than three to one. Backlog reached $230 billion, and management raised full-year sales guidance to $79.75–$81.75 billion.

Northrop Grumman leaned even more heavily on its backlog story. The company reported a record $105 billion backlog, up 17% year over year, alongside $10.9 billion in quarterly sales. Reported EPS fell 6% to $7.68, but that decline was purely an accounting artifact tied to last year's gain from the Training Services divestiture. Adjusted earnings guidance still moved higher.

RTX stole the show on growth. Adjusted sales climbed 16% organically to $24.7 billion, adjusted EPS jumped 21% to $1.89, and backlog surged 22% to $289 billion. The standout figure was $43 billion in new awards this quarter, nearly $20 billion of it at the Raytheon segment alone.

Missile Defense Demand Supports Near-Term Growth for Defense Stocks

The Strait of Hormuz has been an active flashpoint since February, and the recent collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire has renewed pressure on missile defense and munitions. Not every defense stock is equally exposed to that story, and the differences matter for near-term revenue.

Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman form the backbone of the missile defense supply chain. Lockheed's Missiles and Fire Control segment grew sales 19%, driven by PAC-3 and THAAD volume. Northrop manufactures THAAD interceptor rounds and posted a record $35 billion Defense Systems backlog tied to Sentinel and missile defense demand.

RTX carries the munition-replenishment story through its Raytheon segment. The company disclosed more than $5 billion in new contracts for GEM-T effectors, the upgraded Patriot interceptor, headed to Ukraine, Poland, and the U.S. government. Raytheon's book-to-bill ratio hit 2.42, signaling that demand is outpacing even expanded production capacity.

Both RTX and Northrop flagged capacity expansion this quarter. That's a signal that demand, rather than contracts, is now the binding constraint on how quickly these companies can respond to a live conflict.

Military Modernization Creates Long-Term Growth Opportunities

Beyond the current crisis sits a slower-moving story: the multiyear modernization of the U.S. military. This is where each company's flagship programs diverge the most and where longer-term investors should focus.

Northrop's marquee program is the B-21 Raider, the next-generation stealth bomber. Management specifically cited an agreement to accelerate B-21 production capacity as a long-term value driver, positioning the company for a deterrence mission built for the 2030s and beyond.

Lockheed straddles both timelines. Its F-35 program continues to ramp, although some of this quarter's gain reflects the absence of prior-year losses rather than new demand. More telling is the growth in the Next Generation Interceptor, the homeland missile shield meant to succeed today's PAC-3 and THAAD systems.

RTX's modernization bet centers on autonomy. Collins Aerospace's Sidekick software was down-selected for the Air Force's Collaborative Combat Aircraft program, the drone-wingman concept shaping future air combat. Pratt & Whitney also secured certification for its GTF Advantage engine this quarter.

What Defense Investors Should Watch After Earnings

The clearest signal from this earnings season is that backlog composition matters more than backlog size. A backlog full of interceptors and munitions reflects exposure to what's happening in the Gulf today. A backlog full of next-generation platforms reflects exposure to a modernization cycle that is still years from peaking.

What's notable is that all three companies are growing on both fronts simultaneously. That dual exposure, rather than a bet on one story over the other, is likely why Lockheed, Northrop, and RTX all raised guidance in the same week.