Buy this stock tomorrow (From Chaikin Analytics)

On paper, Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) just had one of the best quarters in its history. Revenue climbed 26% year-over-year, pushing the company past $100 billion in trailing 12-month sales for the first time. Deliveries hit a record 480,126 vehicles, and management said it exited the quarter with its largest order backlog since 2023.

However, the market has made it clear it couldn’t care less about any of that. Tesla shares gapped down at the open and were down as much as 15% intraday on July 23, wiping out every gain made since August and dragging the stock back to 2021 levels.

For a company that just posted some record numbers, that's a brutal verdict.

The explanation lies a few lines further down the income statement. Going into this report, deliveries were never going to be the issue. Margins were, and margins are exactly what broke.

The Profitability Picture Fell Apart

The headline number was the earnings miss, with Tesla coming in roughly 35% below what analysts had penciled in. But the more troubling detail was where that miss came from.

Automotive gross margins contracted at an alarming rate, while operating income collapsed 57%. That dragged operating margin down to just 1.4% of sales, from 4.1% a year earlier. To understand just how bad this looks, consider all the time and effort Tesla spent defending a margin profile that justified its premium over every other carmaker on earth. That argument just became much harder to make.

Investors will have also been worried that Tesla’s reported net income was flattered by a $1 billion gain on the company’s holdings in SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX)—strip that out, and the underlying picture looks even worse than the headline suggests.

Tesla Has Officially Joined the AI Spenders Club

The bigger story, and the one that likely did most of the damage, is what Tesla is now spending. The company’s capital expenditure (CapEx) more than doubled sequentially, which resulted in Tesla’s free cash flow turning negative—its first negative print in more than two years.

Management didn't seem especially sheepish about the spending—if anything, they doubled down on it. Full-year CapEx guidance remains above $25 billion, with Tesla’s CFO flagging that spending will increase further in the second half.

More striking still, Tesla disclosed it's pursuing up to $30 billion in additional debt capacity to fund a buildout spanning AI compute, Robotaxi expansion and Optimus production.

If that sounds familiar, it should. It's the same trade the hyperscalers have been asking investors to accept all year: heavy spending now, against a payoff that arrives later but can't be precisely dated.

As we’ve been seeing elsewhere, the market has been losing patience with that bargain recently, and Tesla has just walked into the middle of it.

What Is Actually Working

For all the gloom, the operational progress on autonomy was the strongest it has been. Tesla now has close to 1.5 million paid full self-driving (FSD) customers globally, and more than half of North American deliveries had FSD enabled at the point of sale.

Tesla’s Robotaxi program is also further along than many appreciate, with management reporting that its key metric, miles driven per week, is growing at more than 10% a week. At the same time, Cybercab production is showing promising signs of ramping up.

There was also the company’s Service unit, which saw its revenues grow by 50% and its margins hit an all-time high. This doesn’t seem to be helping much with pain elsewhere this week, but Services is one of the key pieces that Tesla’s long-term growth plan rests on, and it’s moving in the right direction.

Where This Leaves Investors

Wall Street analysts remain split following the report, with several cautiously bullish despite the stock’s sell-off. Against a post-earnings stock price around $320, Morgan Stanley gave Tesla a fresh $400 price target, while describing the CapEx cycle as a “necessary investment” in the near-term.

Others were more measured. Needham acknowledged the longer-term autonomy thesis took a step forward on accelerating FSD uptake, but flagged that margins missed consensus despite the delivery beat, and warned of demand headwinds ahead. With energy also surprising to the downside, the firm sees mounting pressure on Tesla's legacy lines just as CapEx ramps to fund products with still unknown payoffs.

That hesitation makes sense. Tesla is asking shareholders to fund an expensive transition into AI and robotics using a car business whose profitability is visibly deteriorating. If autonomy delivers, this quarter will look like the price of admission. If it doesn't, investors have just been handed a preview of what a low-margin carmaker with an enormous CapEx bill actually looks like.

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