Buy this stock tomorrow (From Chaikin Analytics)

Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) delivered its Q2 2026 results after the close on Wednesday, and by almost any measure, it was an exceptional quarter.

Revenue hit a record. Google Cloud growth accelerated to a pace nobody expected. Earnings per share nearly quadrupled.

And yet the stock fell in after-hours trading and extended those losses before the next session, even as the report showed strength.

The disconnect between the headline numbers and the market's reaction is the story worth understanding here.

A Quarter of Records

Total revenue came in at $119.8 billion, up 24% year over year from $96.4 billion, comfortably ahead of the $116.93 billion consensus. That marked Alphabet's 12th consecutive quarter of double-digit revenue growth. Operating income reached $40.77 billion with an operating margin of 34%.

The standout was Google Cloud. Revenue surged 82% year over year to $24.8 billion, blowing past the roughly $22.3 billion analysts had modeled by about 11%. That is a dramatic acceleration from the 63% growth posted in Q1, and it extends Google Cloud's lead over both Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Azure and Amazon's (NASDAQ: AMZN) AWS in growth terms for a second straight quarter. Cloud operating income more than tripled to $8.8 billion from $2.83 billion a year ago, a sign that scale is finally translating into serious profitability. The cloud backlog swelled to $514 billion, up from $462 billion last quarter.

Google Services held up well, too, growing 15% to $94.5 billion. Search and other revenue rose 17% to $63.3 billion, essentially in line with expectations and further evidence that AI is expanding rather than cannibalizing the core franchise. YouTube advertising grew 13% to $11.1 billion, and subscriptions, platforms, and devices climbed 15% to $12.9 billion. CEO Sundar Pichai noted that nearly 90% of the Fortune 100 are now using Gemini Enterprise.

The $99 Billion Asterisk

Then there is the headline that requires context. Alphabet reported net income of $112.1 billion, up 298% year over year, and diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $9.11, up 294% and far above the roughly $2.89 analysts expected. Those numbers are real, but they are not operational. They were driven overwhelmingly by a $99 billion gain on equity securities, largely reflecting the mark-to-market revaluation of Alphabet's stake in SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) and Anthropic as both valuations soared. Accounting rules require Alphabet to run those unrealized gains straight through the income statement, so the profit appears without a dollar changing hands. Strip it out, and operational EPS lands closer to the $2.87 analysts were actually looking for.

What Spooked the Market

The selling pressure traces back to two words: capital expenditures. Alphabet spent $44.9 billion on capital expenditure in the quarter, up 100% year over year and up 26% sequentially. Free cash flow swung to negative $5.86 billion as a result. Management also signaled further spending increases ahead, and investors, already jumpy about how much capital the mega-caps are committing to AI, chose to focus there rather than on the cloud acceleration.

The Technical Picture

From a technical perspective, the bulls might quietly be cheering this sell-off. Following such a stellar report, the pullback and broader market jitters could ultimately create an opportunity to own the stock at a far more reasonable valuation. On a higher timeframe, GOOGL remains in a clear uptrend. But zooming in, the stock has fallen almost 20% from its record high and is now approaching its 200-day Simple Moving Average, a key long-term trend indicator and one the bulls will want to see hold firm. If shares retrace toward that structural level and find support, with the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) compressing closer to 20 in the process, the setup could become increasingly attractive for long-term buyers.

Patience Is the Variable

Nothing in these numbers undercuts the long-term case. If anything, an 82% cloud growth rate, a $514 billion backlog, and tripling cloud operating income strengthen it considerably. What changed is the market's willingness to fund the buildout without complaint. Alphabet is telling investors it needs to spend aggressively because it cannot build capacity fast enough to serve the demand in front of it, a message consistent with the $80 billion capital raise in June and the reported development of its Frozen v2 inference chip.

The consensus among 55 analysts remains Moderate Buy with a price target of $415.98, implying roughly 22% upside from recent trading levels. At a forward P/E of 23.86, Alphabet still trades at one of the more reasonable multiples in mega-cap tech.

The question for the second half is simple: how long can the market remain patient as the spending curve steepens? For long-term investors, the underlying business just posted one of its strongest quarters ever, but the near-term tape may need more convincing.

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