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“The Buck Stops Here,”
Kelly Maguire
Behind the Markets

SpaceX Valuation Loses Altitude as AI Risks Mount

Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Date Posted: 6/23/2026.

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is trading around $165, reflecting a 25% pullback from its post-IPO peak of $225.

The company’s historic public debut initially assigned SpaceX a peak market capitalization of $1.77 trillion, fueled by strong investor confidence in what was perceived as an orbital monopoly. Equity markets are now rapidly digesting a structural shift in the core narrative.

The Unproven AI Pivot Burns SpaceX Cash

SpaceX management is quickly transforming the company from a pure-play aerospace sector titan into a sprawling, capital-intensive technology sector conglomerate. By directing massive capital expenditures toward artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and using SpaceX equity to finance multibillion-dollar software acquisitions, leadership is fundamentally altering SpaceX's risk profile.

The premium valuation once awarded for orbital dominance is now being challenged by escalating cash burn, macroeconomic headwinds, and a growing dependence on a single, margin-compressed satellite unit.

Black Hole Balance Sheet: The AI Cash Drain

SpaceX's post-IPO price action illustrates a textbook repricing of capital-allocation risk. Days after raising $75 billion in the public markets, SpaceX executed a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Anysphere, the developer of the coding platform Cursor.

For investors, SpaceX's decision to use inflated equity as currency to acquire a terrestrial software company will result in immediate 3.4% equity dilution for shareholders. Expanding the share count to fund non-core software operations just ahead of impending lock-up expirations directly destroys shareholder value.

This aggressive pivot toward artificial intelligence infrastructure requires heavy upfront capital spending. Building data centers creates a severe cash drain that directly competes with liquidity needed for SpaceX's core orbital logistics.

A recently signed $6.3 billion agreement for computing power with open-source startup Reflection AI highlights this shift. While the deal guarantees SpaceX $150 million in monthly recurring revenue starting July 1, 2026, it also requires granting Reflection AI access to NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) GB300 infrastructure at the SpaceX Colossus 2 data center. Building and maintaining oversized data centers to support external artificial intelligence clients diverts resources from core SpaceX launch vehicle development.

Colliding Orbits: The Tesla Merger Threat

Institutional options positioning suggests the broader market is pricing in another major structural threat. Rumors point to an impending, highly dilutive stock-swap merger involving Tesla Inc.'s (NASDAQ: TSLA) artificial intelligence and robotics divisions. The rumor suggests the possible absorption of Tesla's terrestrial electric vehicle operations and consumer robotics segment, forcing a complete re-rating of the SpaceX business model.

Aerospace investors typically pay a significant premium for pure-play monopolies. By blending aerospace logistics with auto manufacturing, artificial intelligence, robotics, and software development, SpaceX invites a substantial conglomerate discount.

Complex, multi-industry holding companies have historically traded at lower multiples than specialized peers because capital is often misallocated across underperforming divisions. SpaceX currently trades at roughly 29 times estimated 2027 sales and 71 times enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). An EBITDA multiple of 71x requires near-perfect execution, and a conglomerate structure leaves no room for operational friction.

Starlink Margins Fall Back to Earth Fast

A fundamental disconnect between the underlying launch segment and the profitable Starlink satellite unit presents substantial systemic risk for SpaceX. Core launch operations function largely as a break-even business designed to facilitate orbital deployment. SpaceX relies almost entirely on Starlink for positive free cash flow.

While Starlink subscriber counts continue to rise, aggressive expansion into emerging markets is driving ongoing compression in average revenue per user.

Average revenue per user dropped from $99 per month in 2023 to $66 per month in the first quarter of 2026. Launching and maintaining a low-Earth-orbit satellite costs SpaceX the same regardless of whether the end user pays premium enterprise rates in North America or heavily subsidized rates in emerging markets. Failing to stabilize these unit economics while simultaneously expanding massive data centers threatens the SpaceX balance sheet.

A $20 billion senior unsecured notes offering is currently underway, serving as a stark reminder of the leverage SpaceX needs to operate. The bond market absorbed the debt comfortably due to investment-grade ratings from S&P Global and Moody's, allowing SpaceX to refinance legacy 12.5% junk bonds with more manageable 4.58% debt. Equity investors are looking further out. Financial modeling from Oppenheimer projects SpaceX's net debt could balloon from roughly $13 billion to over $400 billion by 2031 to sustain continuous orbital deployment and massive data-center builds.

Micro Float Meets Macro Gravity for SpaceX

Broader macroeconomic forces are accelerating the SpaceX sell-off. A hawkish pivot at the recent Federal Reserve meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh has driven U.S. Treasury yields higher. Rising yields mechanically punish long-duration, high-multiple growth equities like SpaceX by heavily discounting future cash flows.

These macroeconomic headwinds are amplified by extreme scarcity in the secondary market. Only 5% of SpaceX's outstanding shares are currently traded in the public float, creating severe supply-and-demand imbalances.

This microscopic float generated record-breaking derivatives volume, with 1.8 million single-name options contracts exchanging hands for $2.8 billion in premium during the first trading session alone. Heavy institutional anchoring at the $200 strike currently acts as a ceiling for SpaceX. Asset managers are capitalizing on this downward momentum, launching inverse products like the Leverage Shares 2x Short SPCX Daily ETF (NYSEARCA: SSPC) to directly fade the SpaceX premium multiple.

Safe Landings in the Commercial Space Sector

The commercial space sector continues to benefit from strong secular tailwinds, driven by sustained government defense spending and private infrastructure demand. SpaceX simply carries a valuation that appears to misprice its looming capital expenditure trajectory and upcoming equity dilution.

Investors may want to consider rotating capital from premium-priced megacaps with unproven AI ventures into fundamentally sound aerospace pure-plays. Risk-averse market participants may prefer a space-focused ETF such as the Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ: UFO). For SpaceX, higher-risk investors should wait for the late 2026 lock-up expirations to improve float liquidity before establishing long-term positions.