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“The Buck Stops Here,”
Kelly Maguire
Behind the Markets

Mission Control: Floating In SpaceX's Record-Breaking Orbit

Authored by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Article Posted: 6/15/2026.

When SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) closed its first day of public trading with a valuation of over $2 trillion, the market structure shifted entirely.

The company shattered global capital-raising records at its IPO on Friday, June 12, raising $75 billion through 555.5 million shares priced at $135 each. By the closing bell, SpaceX surged 19% to settle at $160.95. Monday premarket action shows relentless institutional accumulation, pushing SpaceX up another 6% toward the $170 mark.

Zero Gravity: A Highly Engineered Float

Beneath the headline numbers, a sharp supply-and-demand imbalance is driving near-term price action.

Participating brokerages also made retail allocations stickier than in a typical IPO. Some platforms warned investors that quickly flipping SpaceX shares could hurt eligibility for future IPO access, while others used roughly 30-day anti-flipping restrictions. That reduced the amount of stock available for immediate retail resale and tightened the early trading float.

Insiders and certain pre-IPO shareholders are also subject to staggered lock-up restrictions, limiting how quickly additional shares can enter the market. That structure avoids a single 180-day release cliff and helps keep near-term supply tighter than it would be under a more traditional lock-up schedule.

The IPO also gives underwriters a built-in way to help steady the stock if early trading gets choppy. SpaceX granted its underwriters a 30-day option to buy up to 83.33 million additional shares at the IPO price, and Morgan Stanley is serving as the stabilization agent. If the stock comes under pressure, the underwriters can buy shares in the open market to help cover short positions. If demand stays strong, they can instead buy the additional shares directly from SpaceX. If SpaceX experiences sudden downside velocity over the next 30 days, Morgan Stanley will buy shares on the open market to cover that short position, with the goal of creating a hard floor. If upward momentum holds, Morgan Stanley can simply exercise its option to acquire the shares directly from SpaceX. Immense demand is currently colliding with an artificially starved float, creating the exact conditions for early-week upward volatility.

Orbital Computing: A Multi-Billion Dollar Pivot

The fundamental debate raging among SpaceX's analyst community has very little to do with reusable rockets. The February 2026 merger with Elon Musk's artificial intelligence (AI) startup, xAI, fundamentally rewrote the financial DNA of SpaceX. Market perception has shifted aggressively from an aerospace infrastructure provider to a space-based artificial intelligence compute ecosystem.

SpaceX currently commands an estimated 90% to 95% of future orbital launch capacity. That near-monopoly on orbital access provides a structural moat unrivaled in modern public markets. The cost of maintaining and expanding that moat is staggering.

First-quarter 2026 capital expenditures hit $10.1 billion, representing a leap from the $4.1 billion spent during the same period last year. SpaceX deployed the bulk of that capital toward developing orbital data centers to power high-density compute workloads in low Earth orbit for the xAI integration. By placing server racks in space, xAI aims to bypass terrestrial power grid constraints and land-use restrictions, a visionary pitch that requires astronomical upfront costs.

This hyper-aggressive capital allocation strategy produced a fiscal 2025 net loss of $4.94 billion on $18.7 billion in revenue. First-quarter 2026 metrics show accelerating revenue of $4.69 billion, paired with negative earnings per share of $1.27.

Institutional sentiment is sharply divided on how to price this cash furnace. NewStreet Research initiated coverage with a $165 price target, arguing that investors must view SpaceX through a two-decade lens to price in the insurmountable launch advantage. Morningstar analysts took a radically different view, slapping a $63 price target on SpaceX. Morningstar cites the sheer payload costs and capital intensity of the artificial intelligence pivot as a severe threat to near-term cash flow, labeling SpaceX broadly overvalued.

Gravitational Pull: Lifting Sector-Wide Valuations

The $2 trillion market capitalization validates the orbital economy as a premier investable mega-trend. When the largest player in a nascent sector goes public at a historic valuation, it forces a multiple rerating across the entire industry. Institutional portfolios that missed out on primary allocations or are structurally underweight due to SpaceX's large market capitalization must deploy capital into adjacent peers to maintain sector exposure.

This dynamic creates a rising tide for pure-play infrastructure alternatives. Macro funds no longer view companies like Rocket Lab (Nasdaq: RKLB) and Intuitive Machines (Nasdaq: LUNR) as speculative ventures in the aerospace sector. Wall Street now benchmarks Rocket Lab and Intuitive Machines against a $2 trillion titan.

While neither Rocket Lab nor Intuitive Machines has SpaceX's artificial intelligence compute pipeline, Rocket Lab offers viable launch logistics exposure at a fraction of SpaceX's valuation multiple. This setup makes both Rocket Lab and Intuitive Machines prime candidates for capital rotation as the broader market digests the new orbital baseline established by SpaceX.

Hyperdrive Activated: Leverage, Options, and Index Flows

Fundamental valuation models will likely take a back seat to raw market mechanics this week. The immediate trading environment is primed for extreme volatility, driven by leveraged derivatives and forced index accumulation.

After a brief regulatory delay intended to preserve orderly trading on IPO day, ProShares launched a highly aggressive synthetic instrument on Monday morning. ProShares Ultra SpaceX (NYSE: SPCF) offers traders 200% daily leveraged exposure to SpaceX. Because ProShares must rebalance ProShares Ultra SpaceX at the end of every trading session, it is forced to buy into strength and sell into weakness, mathematically exacerbating intraday price swings in SpaceX.

Standard options contracts on SpaceX are expected to begin trading on Tuesday, June 16, 2026. Pre-IPO perpetual futures on the Hyperliquid exchange priced SpaceX at a heavy premium, suggesting that pent-up speculative capital is poised to flood the derivatives market. When retail traders flood into call options, market makers must hedge those positions by buying the underlying SpaceX stock. Combining an artificially tight retail float with massive market-maker buying often leads to severe implied volatility and intense gamma squeezes.

Adding even more fuel to these structural mechanics is impending index inclusion. Passive funds tracking major benchmarks such as the Nasdaq 100, MSCI, and Russell indexes could be mandated to acquire SpaceX shares this month.

Nasdaq’s updated methodology allows certain large new listings to qualify for fast entry, FTSE Russell now allows eligible large IPOs to enter Russell U.S. indexes after the fifth trading day, and MSCI has long-standing fast-track rules for large IPOs that can lead to inclusion after 10 trading days. However, SpaceX is not getting the same fast-track path into the S&P 500, where S&P Dow Jones Indices kept its existing seasoning, profitability, and float requirements in place.

These passive vehicles may not have the luxury of waiting for a fundamental pullback, as they must buy at market prices to track their respective indexes accurately.

Re-Entry Protocols: Hedging the Imminent Volatility

Active traders might use the emerging derivatives market to hedge SpaceX exposure as this complex web of catalysts unfolds. Long-term investors who believe in the orbital data center thesis may prefer to let the initial wave of derivative-driven volatility settle before establishing a core SpaceX position. Those with a more conservative mandate might look toward the broader aerospace sector, seeking multiple expansion opportunities in adjacent infrastructure peers like Rocket Lab while the primary float digests this historic public debut.