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Today's Bonus Story
3 Retail Stocks Getting Crushed and the Long-Dated Options Trade on Each OneBy Bridget Bennett. Posted: 9/21/2026. 
Key Points
- TJX Companies has fallen roughly 20% in under a month despite strong earnings, with relative strength readings near rare oversold extremes.
- Andrew Keene is using January 2028 call options on TJX Companies and Burlington Stores to cut daily time decay to less than a penny.
- Premium brands, including On Holding and Nike, are sliding alongside off-price retailers, pointing to a consumer squeeze rather than company-specific problems.
- Special Report: Major Buy Alert Issued for October 31st
Retail is taking a hard hit, and the charts look considerably worse than the underlying businesses. TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX) is down roughly 20% in less than a month and about 25% over the past 90 days, and the decline followed a strong earnings report. Burlington Stores (NYSE: BURL) and Dick's Sporting Goods (NYSE: DKS) look nearly identical on the chart.
Andrew Keene, president and CEO of AlphaShark Trading and a former Chicago Board Options Exchange floor trader, sees correlation rather than collapse. As oil prices climb, discretionary income tightens, and traders sell retail as a straightforward proxy for shorting the consumer. The group falls together, whether or not any individual company earned it. His response isn't a quick trade. Instead, he uses a set of long-dated call options sized small enough to withstand significant volatility. Low Volatility Pushed This Trader Out to 2028 ExpirationsKeene compares owning an option to carrying car insurance: You pay for it every day, whether or not you use it. Options lose value fastest inside 90 days, and with the volatility index in the mid-teens, he says short-dated calls and puts stopped working for him. So he changed what he trades. He now looks at nothing less than four months out, and several current positions run through January 2028. On a call bought for around $2.20 with roughly 500 days remaining, the daily decay works out to less than a penny. He screens for average true range (ATR), the typical distance a stock covers between its high and low in a session. A wider range means more opportunities for an option to move. He pairs that with the relative strength index (RSI), where a reading below 30 is considered oversold and below 20 is considered unusually low. TJX Companies Is Trading Near an 18 RSITJX sits around $127, with an ATR near $3 and an RSI around 18.8. Keene estimates that fewer than six optionable stocks in the entire market are that stretched. His position consists of Jan. 21, 2028, $190 calls, bought near $2.35 and recently trading closer to $2.20. He plans to add around $1.50 and again near 75 cents if shares keep sliding. Earnings are already behind the stock, removing one near-term variable. For readers who would rather own shares than contracts, he sketched out the stock version: an entry near $126, a stop around $110, a first target near $133 and a second near $140. He would move the stop to breakeven once the first target is reached. The math behind his preference is simple. One contract costs about $235 and controls 100 shares. Buying those shares outright costs roughly $12,000. Burlington Stores Has the Widest Daily Range on His Book
Burlington is the name Keene likes most, largely because it moves the most. Its ATR runs near $12 a day, the widest among the roughly 50 positions he currently holds. He bought two January 2028 $480 calls at $6.80, representing about $1,300 in risk, with a target of $9. He doesn't expect the stock, which is near $238, to reach $480. That isn't the bet. A recovery of $60 or $70 could be enough for the option to work, and he plans to add at $4 and again at $2, capping his exposure near $5,000. Dick's Sporting Goods Offers the Cleanest Chart of the 3Dick's is the shortest-dated position, expiring in June 2027, roughly nine months out. Shares were hit after earnings, though an RSI near 28 is only modestly oversold rather than extreme. The $8 ATR is what drew him in. He owns two $200 calls bought around $5.70, with bids resting at $3.50 and $1.50 for additional contracts. The chart has already turned: Shares bottomed near $120 and have recovered to about $133. Keene exits these positions 90 days before expiration to avoid the steepest decay. He's also holding 2028 calls in On Holding (NYSE: ONON), a premium brand that was also punished after earnings, and watching NIKE (NYSE: NKE) without a position for now. What Could Go Wrong With These Oversold Retail StocksA low RSI isn't a buy signal on its own. Keene has back-tested the strategy, and an RSI of 18 can continue grinding toward 15 while the stock drifts lower. Slow declines barely move the indicator at all. Bankruptcy looks like a remote risk for companies this size with real revenue and profitability, but the honest answer is position sizing rather than prediction. Keene has roughly $5,000 allocated to each idea against a $175,000 account. He only buys options rather than selling them naked, so the maximum loss is the premium paid. He trades his own money alongside everything he publishes. The upside case is that oil cools, discretionary spending stabilizes and buyers step into companies that never stopped earning. The risk is that the consumer keeps weakening and these charts spend another year moving sideways. Watch oil, not the retail tape. That's the input moving this group. Want to see the trades as they are placed? Get Andrew Keene's weekly options trade alerts at OptionHacker.
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