The Rumors About Elon’s Next Move Are Spreading Fast (From The Oxford Club)

Big Tech giants seem to be spending everything they can on AI infrastructure. Alphabet’s (NASDAQ: GOOGL) spending caused its free cash flow (FCF) to come in at negative $5.9 billion last quarter, while Meta Platforms' (NASDAQ: META) FCF fell over 90% to $784 million. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) was the only AI hyperscaler that managed to post FCF above $1 billion. However, the figure still fell 23% year-over-year (YOY) to $19.6 billion.

Against this backdrop, something investors have become accustomed to seeing from these companies has started to fall by the wayside: share buybacks. As investors contemplate the outlooks of these names, this dynamic is worth recognizing as the AI buildout pressures their ability to return capital.

On the other side of the equation, the company that these three hyperscalers hand billions of dollars to each quarter is buying back shares like never before.

Alphabet Halts Repurchases, Opts for Issuance

Among this group, Alphabet has by far shown the largest drop-off in its repurchase activity. Notably, the company spent $61.5 billion on buybacks in 2023, $62.2 billion in 2024, and $45.7 billion in 2025.

Over this period, it reduced its outstanding share count by more than 6%, providing a solid tailwind for metrics such as earnings per share (EPS). However, by Q4 2025, buybacks came in at just $5.5 billion, falling over 64% YOY.

This was the last time Alphabet bought back shares, with the firm engaging in no repurchases during 2026. In fact, the company’s outstanding share count is now moving upwards. In Q2, Alphabet issued $30.5 billion in shares, bringing its outstanding share count up approximately 1.4% since the start of the year. Its share count could rise even further.

This $30.5 billion was just a portion of its larger over $80 billion equity offering as Alphabet seeks more and more funding for its AI investments.

Meta’s Share Count Increases as Buybacks Tank

A very similar story is playing out at Meta. In 2023, 2024, and 2025, the company spent $19.8 billion, $30.1 billion, and $26.2 billion on buybacks, respectively. This helped Meta lower its outstanding share count by around 3% during that period.

However, as with Alphabet, Meta’s repurchases have dwindled all the way to zero in 2026. Furthermore, the company’s outstanding share count has risen by around 1.4% since Q3 2025. This is the result of Meta’s share-based compensation rising steeply as repurchases fall.

Notably, Meta’s stock-based compensation rose over 58% YOY to $7.66 billion in its latest quarter and rose 30% versus Q1. While Meta’s FCF remained slightly positive last quarter, analysts do not expect this to continue. In turn, it is likely that Meta’s buyback spending will not recover in the near future, placing further upward pressure on its share count.

Microsoft’s Buybacks Hold Steady, But for How Long?

Amid Microsoft’s higher FCF, the company’s buyback spending is also showing greater resilience than Alphabet's and Meta's. In its fiscal years 2024, 2025, and 2026, Microsoft spent $17.2 billion, $18.4 billion, and $22.3 billion on repurchases. (Note that because Microsoft’s fiscal year ends in June, the timeline is two quarters ahead of Alphabet and Meta.)

While this spending was large in absolute terms, Microsoft’s share count changed little during this period, with buybacks primarily offsetting stock-based compensation. Still, in the first half of calendar 2026, Microsoft has spent $6.8 billion on buybacks, a slight increase over the $6.7 billion it spent in the same period last year. In turn, its share count has not risen, unlike Alphabet's and Meta's.

While Microsoft expects to remain FCF positive over the next 12 months, analysts still see its FCF declining significantly. This could put pressure on its future buyback capacity and cause its share count to rise.

Investors may notice the omission of Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) from this discussion. This is because Amazon has not historically engaged in significant buybacks, with its last repurchases coming in 2022.

NVIDIA’s Buybacks Hit Record Levels as Big Tech Spending Soars

Considering this data, investors may have to accept that buybacks are not a top concern of hyperscalers at this moment and likely will not be for some time. However, as these firms spend billions on NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) AI compute and networking products, its buybacks are soaring.

Last quarter, NVIDIA spent a record $19.7 billion on buybacks, up from $19.3 billion in the prior quarter. In mid-2022, the company ended a more than five-year run of increasing its share count.

Since then, NVIDIA's share count has dropped approximately 3.5%.

With $99 billion remaining under its share repurchase authorization and FCF rising 59% YOY to $21.4 billion last quarter, the company is in a strong position to continue lowering its share count, in contrast to other hyperscalers.

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