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The Bull Case for D-Wave After a Disappointing Earnings Season

Submitted by Nathan Reiff. Publication Date: 8/25/2026.

The tail end of summer may be giving investors in quantum computing a bit of whiplash. On the one hand, D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NASDAQ: QBTS) delivered one of the more underwhelming Q2 2026 earnings reports, missing expectations for both earnings and revenue. Sales growth appeared to grind to a halt while competitors saw healthy acceleration.

On the other hand, QBTS shares are up about 20% over the past month, perhaps signaling the first stage of a recovery after a multimonth decline that began in May. Short interest in the stock is up, but only to about 1.3% of the float over the past month.

Despite missing expectations and appearing to fall behind its peers in its latest earnings report, D-Wave nonetheless has a compelling bull case going forward. That case is based on the company's potential to convert contracted projects into realized revenue, build bookings, grow its backlog and more.

These factors could combine to justify Wall Street's continued enthusiasm and the impressive 90% predicted upside for QBTS stock.

Looking Beyond the Sales Slump

D-Wave's Q2 sales slump is discouraging on the surface, particularly given that rivals like IonQ Inc. (NYSE: IONQ) posted strong growth in this area in their recent reports. However, signs beyond revenue suggest that D-Wave's commercial adoption may be poised to take off.

Commercial revenue represented about 62% of total revenue for the quarter, an increase of 45% compared with the prior-year quarter. The company is also generating revenue from more customers—more than 100 in the first half of the year—which is an important development for a firm and an industry that have traditionally relied heavily on a small number of lucrative contracts to fuel their bottom lines.

Crucially, customers are moving beyond experimentation with quantum technology. Production applications accounted for more than 37% of D-Wave's quantum computing as a service (QCaaS) revenue in the first half of 2026, nearly quadrupling their share of those sales in the first half of 2025. This could indicate that clients are integrating quantum computing more thoroughly into their day-to-day operations.

Bookings and Backlog May Be a Hidden Measure of Success

Perhaps the strongest argument that investors should not write off D-Wave just yet is the company's strong customer demand, as evidenced by its bookings. While much of this demand has not yet translated into realized revenue, the firm reported a 59% year-over-year (YOY) increase in quarterly bookings. For the entire first half of the year, bookings were up a stratospheric 1,120% to $35.5 million.

More than half of that latter figure is attributable to a single annealing system sale to Florida Atlantic University. However, a significant portion of that contract has not yet been recognized as revenue in a quarterly earnings report because of the lengthy delivery, installation and testing process. This gives investors a glimpse of potential future earnings, with the expectation that most of that contract—and others—will appear in future revenue figures.

D-Wave's backlog also suggests that momentum is building in key areas. The firm's remaining performance obligations (RPOs) indicate that future revenue could be much higher than recent results would suggest. As of the end of June 2026, D-Wave's RPOs stood at $40.7 million, up a massive 668% from the same period one year earlier. If the expected 57% of that backlog converts to revenue over the coming year, investors may be looking at a major sales boost.

A Reminder of the Risks

The quantum race is continuing at breakneck speed, and despite the potential suggested by some details in D-Wave's recent earnings report, investors should keep the risks in mind. The industry may be stratifying into top performers, middling firms and up-and-coming stars. There is also the threat posed by major legacy technology companies.

D-Wave's earnings were disappointing, with revenue coming in below expectations, losses appearing wider than analysts had predicted, and investors reminded that quarterly results can be lumpy and unpredictable. Beyond that, the quantum industry remains speculative, as none of its companies has achieved widespread commercial adoption.

D-Wave's technology is compelling, and its poor revenue performance may not reflect the real momentum building among its customers. However, the company still faces an uphill battle if it is to lead the quantum industry in its effort to revolutionize computing across the board.