BlackRock already has a fund running on it.

Goldman Sachs has announced full integration plans.

JPMorgan is already moving $2 billion a day through it.

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The talking heads on CNBC? Clueless.

Your token financial guru on Twitter? Same.

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Why ASML’s AI Monopoly Is Still Getting Stronger

Submitted by Thomas Hughes. Posted: 7/15/2026.

ASML (NASDAQ: ASML) holds a monopoly on foundational AI technology, making it one of the most structurally sound tech investments you can own. Its Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines are the only ones capable of printing AI-capable circuitry, and demand remains strong.

Evidence of that strength showed up in the company's Q2 results and guidance update, released July 15. The report highlighted not only demand, but also a business model built for the long term. While new EUV machines are the story today, those sales will cool over time. The bigger opportunity is the persistent upgrade cycle built into the technology, which includes software and hardware upgrades as well as the services needed to implement them.

ASML’s machine bases are bolted to the floors of semiconductor foundries worldwide, and foundry capacity is expanding rapidly. Each machine base adds to Installed Base volume. As it stands, Installed Base accounted for 30% of net revenue, growing 11% sequentially and 5% year over year, underscoring the business’s wide moat.

There is an up-and-coming competing technology developed by Canon (OTCMKTS: CAJPY), but it is not expected to be available at anything like commercial scale until 2028 and, even then, is not a true competitor. Canon’s Nanoimprint technology, which stamps circuits onto silicon, can produce similarly fine circuitry, but it also carries a much higher error rate, making it unsuitable for advanced computing.

ASML Signals Momentum Shift in Lithography Markets

ASML had a robust quarter, with revenue growing 21% in Q2. Top-line results outpaced consensus by roughly 450 basis points (bps), driven by strength in new equipment and upgrades. The company sold 86 new machines, up 28%, while used equipment sales declined. Gross margin, another critical factor, expanded by 1,000 bps due to leverage, including that provided by Installed Base management.

Margin is another key factor for this investment, as the company has maintained a healthy gross margin in the mid-50% range and continues to improve thanks to sales strength and Installed Base growth. The only negative was net margin contraction, which left earnings up just 5.8%. Still, there is a silver lining: the company is investing in technology and capacity to meet new demand, signaling the durability of the cycle.

Guidance is another signal of this company’s strength, position, and momentum within the industry. The company issued a Q3 revenue target more than 1,000 bps above expectations, lifted its full-year outlook, and hinted at a change to its long-term outlook. The caveat is that the change will not be revealed until next year’s investor day event. Until then, ASML forecasts Q3 revenue to grow more than 23% sequentially and 31% year over year (YOY), which may underestimate demand for its products.

Analysts Pound the Table for Top-Pick ASML

Analysts responded vigorously to ASML’s release, issuing numerous comments that reinforced the bullish narrative. They pointed to the company’s strong top- and bottom-line results, Installed Base growth, strength in Installed Base management, and the direct connection to capacity expansion.

Activity also included several price target increases, pushing the high end of the range higher. The consensus price target of $1,891 reported by MarketBeat in mid-July offered only modest upside, but the high end added nearly 40% to that figure. The likely result is that analyst sentiment remains robust through year-end and into 2027, supporting the stock’s rally.

Capital returns are also part of this stock’s appeal, including dividends and share buybacks. The dividend is little more than a token, yielding approximately 0.6% as of mid-July, but it is reliable, increases annually, and is complemented by share count reductions. Q2 activity helped produce a nearly 1% trailing 12-month decline, a pace that is likely to continue in the coming quarters.

Stock price action following the earnings release told a mixed story. ASML jumped more than 3% in premarket trading before giving back those gains, though it held support near $1,775, which coincides with the 30-day exponential moving average.

This suggests short-term buyers are active and defending support, but they have not yet taken decisive control. A move through the existing high near $2,000 is the level to watch—clearing it would likely trigger fresh capital inflows. If new highs are set, the next resistance target is in the $2,250 region.

ASML’s biggest risks are geopolitical. Restrictions, bans, and Chinese actions against Taiwan pose an existential threat and could disrupt the business. U.S. legislation currently under review could also prevent the company from servicing equipment already installed in China. Customer concentration is centered on Taiwanese manufacturers, including Taiwan Semiconductor (NASDAQ: TSM), as well as Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and Samsung (OTCMKTS: SSNLF). Valuation is also a risk, as the stock is priced for perfection and flawless execution.

I've spent two decades tracking the forces that move gold...

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Meta Platforms’ Cloud Push: Growth Opportunity Versus AI Concerns

Reported by Leo Miller. Article Published: 7/8/2026.

Shares of Magnificent Seven giant Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) recently got a significant boost after the company’s potential cloud push moved closer to reality. Shares jumped 8.8% on July 1 after reports that Meta plans to sell excess compute capacity to third parties.

While the market’s reaction was clearly positive, investors should weigh both the upside and downside if Meta follows through. The company’s cloud push could become a meaningful source of revenue and profit, but it also raises questions about the long-term competitiveness of its AI products.

Positives of Selling Compute: AI Monetization and Spending Signals

One of the biggest reasons the market reacted positively to Meta’s cloud computing push is what it could mean for the company’s ability to generate new AI revenue. By renting out computing capacity to other firms, Meta may be able to earn attractive margins on its capital expenditures (CapEx).

When considering Meta’s position in the cloud computing space, neoclouds like CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV) provide a useful comparison. CoreWeave focuses exclusively on AI infrastructure demand, while more established companies like Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) serve both AI and non-AI demand.

Because Meta’s AI infrastructure is heavily concentrated in graphics processing units, the company would operate in a similar space to CoreWeave. As a result, CoreWeave can offer a glimpse into how much Meta could benefit from entering the cloud computing market.

Last quarter, CoreWeave generated revenue of $2.08 billion. Of that amount, the company’s adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) were approximately $1.2 billion. Achieving something similar could provide a meaningful boost for Meta, whose calculated Q1 2026 EBITDA was approximately $28.87 billion. Still, as Meta enters the market, the added competition could ضغط down margins in this space.

However, with overall demand for compute still rising, Meta could have a significant growth opportunity from here. In addition, the recent deal SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) signed with Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) suggests Meta could scale cloud revenue much faster than CoreWeave. Alphabet will pay SpaceX $920 million per month to lease computing assets, implying $2.76 billion in quarterly revenue.

Another important implication is what the move signals about Meta’s CapEx spending going forward. If Meta already believes it has excess compute, it suggests the company may not need to spend as heavily on CapEx in the future. Meta’s elevated and rising CapEx spending has arguably been the biggest overhang on its stock price. In turn, a sign that this trend could potentially reverse is positive for many investors.

The Negatives: Selling Compute Could Point to AI Product Weakness

On the negative side, Meta’s willingness to sell compute suggests it does not have enough strong internal use cases for that capacity, raising questions about its broader competitiveness in delivering AI products.

The timing of this pivot is notable given the release of Meta’s Muse Spark model several months ago, which is far more intelligent than its predecessors. The move to sell excess compute suggests that development of Muse Spark-related products may not be progressing as quickly as hoped. Those products would likely require more compute to support their usage. In fact, recent reports say CEO Mark Zuckerberg told employees that the pace of the company’s AI agent development has been slower than expected.

Furthermore, it is important to note that the details of Meta’s cloud push are very limited at this point. It remains unclear how much of Meta’s compute the company considers excess relative to internal needs. That question matters, since the amount of excess capacity would directly determine how much revenue Meta could generate from the cloud push.

Notably, comments made on Meta’s most recent earnings call pushed back against the idea that the company has significant excess compute. Chief Financial Officer Susan Li said, “Our experience so far has been that we have continued to underestimate our compute needs.” She added, "Our expectation is that compute will become even more central to the business going forward.”

Meta’s Next Earnings Call Could Provide Significant Clarity on Cloud Ambitions

Overall, Meta has yet to provide any concrete comments on its cloud push. Given the significant implications for Meta’s outlook, it will likely be a key topic of discussion during the company’s next earnings call.

When Meta addresses cloud computing directly, investors should watch for clues about how much compute the company plans to provide to third parties. That should offer more detail on Meta’s revenue opportunity and on its confidence in marketing its own AI solutions.