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Retail Earnings Just Exposed a Bigger Divide in the U.S. Consumer Economy

Authored by Nathan Reiff. Published: 9/4/2026.

Looking back at the latest earnings season for retail stocks, an unusual K-shaped pattern emerges: Lower-income households appear to be struggling, with some value stores having difficulty reconciling their low prices with increasingly costly inventory. At the same time, however, a handful of specialized stores, including homeowner and contractor supply chains, have reported unexpectedly strong quarters in several respects.

This data supports the growing narrative that different groups of consumers are experiencing the economy in vastly different ways. Those with more disposable income are tending to spend freely, while those with less are being forced to tighten their belts even further.

The situation means that some companies—like The Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) and Lowe's Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW)—have performed better than others, including Walmart (NASDAQ: WMT) and Five Below Inc. (NASDAQ: FIVE). Even the latter two companies have posted hidden wins, suggesting a more complicated consumer landscape than some may anticipate.

Home Depot Finds Resilience in Pro Demand and Smaller Projects

Home Depot's Q2 2026 earnings of $4.92 per share came on revenue of nearly $48 billion, up about 6% year over year (YOY).

Both figures exceeded analyst expectations, fueled by comparable-store sales growth of 1.7%, a notably strong figure for the company.

Home improvement projects appear to be holding up fairly well, particularly among higher-income homeowners with more discretionary income to spend.

The company saw strong demand across many of its departments, supported by its new three-hour express delivery service. This offering may also appeal to consumers with more disposable income who are willing to pay extra for convenience.

To be sure, uncertainty about consumer sentiment in general, along with concerns about housing affordability, may negatively affect some types of home improvement projects. Still, Wall Street analysts have rallied behind Home Depot stock, calling it a Moderate Buy overall and forecasting approximately 18% upside.

Lowe’s Pro Growth Can’t Fully Offset Soft DIY Demand

On a macro level, Lowe's would seem to benefit from many of the same factors driving Home Depot's growth.

The company is also well-suited to serve consumers undertaking big-ticket home improvement projects, as some households are still prepared to spend substantial amounts on them.

This is reflected in Lowe's sales growth of 8.3% YOY in the latest quarter, along with strong free cash flow and pro sales growth that reflects robust contractor demand.

The issue for Lowe's may be that its overall competitive position is weaker than Home Depot's. Management recently reduced its full-year outlook because of softer DIY demand. Comparable sales increased by just 0.2% YOY. While that is better than a decline, it is a much slower rate than Home Depot's.

In addition, the company decided not to use tariff refunds to fund summer promotions to the same extent as some of its competitors, and its performance suffered as a result.

Five Below and Walmart Show Different Sides of the Value Consumer

Five Below faces margin challenges as a result of significant increases in fuel costs, while the benefits from tariffs are disappearing quickly.

Still, the company has managed to post some crucial wins in key areas. Profitability remained higher, with merchandise-margin gains and fixed-cost leverage serving as two important contributing factors.

Where Five Below really succeeded in Q2 2026, however, was sales growth of 23% YOY, including a 14% YOY improvement in comparable sales.

This may suggest that consumers are still willing to spend on discretionary items when the price is compelling, even as economic pressures make them more selective about larger purchases. Five Below may have cracked the code for continuing to see robust traffic and transactions even as economic pressures mount.

Walmart, on the other hand, disappointed investors with its latest earnings, even though it also raised its full-year guidance.

The issue may be that the company posted notably slower sales growth than in recent quarters. There may also be concern that its results are benefiting artificially from near-term tariff refunds that will not last.

Still, Walmart's digital business appears to be thriving and expanding its margins.

Advertising remains a high-growth area of the company's ecosystem, supported by growth in membership income, e-commerce and other businesses. This may explain why, despite shares falling by about 2.7% year to date (YTD), analysts remain very bullish on WMT stock overall and expect the stock to gain 24%.

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Defense, Solar, and Refining Stocks Split as the Iran Conflict Raises Energy Risk

Submitted by Nathan Reiff. Publication Date: 9/9/2026.

Months into the war between the United States and Iran, the conflict has entered another period of intensification. The many ups and downs over the last several months, during which a ceasefire has repeatedly appeared imminent before attacks resume, have provided opportunities for select industries and companies to thrive. Now, with multiple commercial supertankers struck in recent weeks, the escalation is prompting a divergence across the market.

As oil remains near multi-week highs, defense contractors are benefiting from a sustained increase in government outlays. At the same time, concerns about energy security may create uncertainty across the sector. Oil refiners are enjoying crack spreads that are near all-time highs in terms of profitability. The three companies below represent each of these corners of the market and have responded very differently to the latest round of fighting in the Iran conflict.

SAIC Is a Steady Compounder in the Defense IT Space

Science Applications International Corp. (NASDAQ: SAIC) plays a pivotal role in intelligence systems, cybersecurity and mission IT, allowing the contractor to benefit across all phases of a war like the one in Iran. Results for its latest quarter—Q2 fiscal 2027, which ended July 31, 2026—were strong across the board. They included organic revenue growth of about 5%, adjusted EBITDA of $193 million at a 10.3% margin and $131 million in free cash flow. The company also posted an impressive earnings beat, with earnings per share (EPS) of $3.01, 70 cents ahead of estimates. This figure was lower year over year (YOY), however, due to a large legal settlement a year earlier.

SAIC also provided insight into its contract pipeline, which strengthens the case for its future prospects. A $400 million recompete contract for an unspecified U.S. intelligence agency, coupled with a recompete win rate of more than 90% for the latest quarter, indicates that SAIC is highly capable of generating new business.

Management raised its fiscal 2027 earnings outlook by 75 cents at the low end and 65 cents at the high end, along with an increase in its anticipated revenue. The company's backlog is also robust. In short, SAIC appears to be operating well in an environment practically designed to ensure its success. One factor that may give investors pause, however, is that after climbing nearly 26% year to date (YTD), SAIC stock may not have as much room to rally in the near term.

SolarEdge’s Recovery Still Faces a Difficult Setup

After several highly tumultuous years, SolarEdge Technologies (NASDAQ: SEDG) appeared to be an early beneficiary of the Iran war. Shares climbed in the weeks immediately following the onset of U.S.-Israeli strikes and then spiked in early June as European demand rose amid market volatility.

Since then, however, the picture has become cloudier. Even with fairly strong Q2 2026 results—including a 20% YOY revenue increase to more than $346 million, a non-GAAP operating profit for the first time in several years and gross margin expansion to 28.6%—shares of SEDG have now fallen significantly from their mid-year highs.

Higher energy prices should help boost solar adoption, which would benefit the company. However, rising Treasury yields due to energy-fueled inflation concerns also mean that the cost of financing its projects has soared, potentially harming demand. At the same time, a tepid U.S. residential market may weigh on SolarEdge's business. The result is a company that, despite fairly strong fundamentals, has an overall Reduce rating across Wall Street analyses.

Marathon Is the Clearest Winner, But Not a Risk-Free One

High gas prices, near-record crack spreads and concerns about supply have created an excellent environment for oil refiners. Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: MPC), one of the world's largest such companies, is no exception.

Marathon's Q2 2026 earnings report was stellar, with second-quarter profit surging nearly fourfold to $5.1 billion on a 54% YOY jump in revenue. Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled as well, thanks in large part to excellent crack spreads amid the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Shares of MPC have predictably shot upward in this environment, climbing over 140% YTD. Analysts remain largely optimistic about MPC's viability for investors, with 12 of 17 calling the shares a Buy even as the stock has surged past the consensus price target of $330.50. Of course, the danger for investors is that the same major catalyst—crack spreads driven by supply concerns—can reverse just as quickly. So while Marathon may seem like the clear winner of the three stocks on this list, investors should remain mindful that it still carries risks amid a highly volatile war.