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Amprius Technologies' Next Big Rally Could Be Taking Shape

Author: Thomas Hughes. Originally Published: 10/20/2026.

Amprius Technologies (NYSE: AMPX) experienced a shocking trend shift in Q3 at face value, given the 68% correction in its share price over that period. During the quarter, shares were up as much as 3,877% from their 2024 lows, offering early investors a compelling profit opportunity. The stock remains significantly higher than it was at that time.

This stock's price action reflects a fundamental market shift that is still underway and likely to gain momentum in the coming quarters. Amprius Technologies’ technology has been validated, it is backed by government grants, the timeline for product ramp-up is accelerating, and profitability forecasts are improving alongside it. With the company now entering its execution phase, the upside potential is off the charts.

The Chart Says Speculation Phase Is Over, Execution Phase Underway

Amprius Technologies' chart action reveals that its first phase—the speculation phase—is complete or nearly so. The 2024-to-2026 price action clearly aligns with Elliott Wave Theory, showing a market waking up to the opportunity, buying into the outlook and then driving the stock to fresh highs on FOMO, or the fear of missing out.

Elliott Waves are a widely used technical tool based on an eight-wave cycle. The five-wave impulse cycle includes three upswings and two corrections, with the middle surge usually the largest; under a strict interpretation, it can never be the smallest. In this case, AMPX’s market swings are 490%, 550% and 215%, which perfectly matches the rule. The three-wave corrective phase is now underway, with the bottom clearly marked. The question is whether AMPX’s market has completed its corrective action or faces another test of support, which cannot be ruled out.

For investors, this suggests AMPX's market is likely near its bottom, as other indicators suggest. While AMPX hit fresh lows in mid-October, the market is diverging from its indicators and becoming overextended ahead of an expected series of bullish catalysts. In this scenario, the stock is set for a bullish swing with the potential to sustain an upward trajectory despite periodic pullbacks and corrections.

Upcoming catalysts include the Q3 2026 earnings report, due in early November. Quarterly results are likely to be strong, given the contract wins, ongoing capacity ramp-up and history of outperformance. Consensus forecasts call for only slight quarter-to-quarter growth and a slowdown to about 66.5% year-over-year, likely underestimating the company's strength. Guidance will be the more critical factor, as trends point to a surge in product availability next year. Analysts forecast only about 50% growth next year, another figure the company is likely to outperform.

AMPX’s Next Bullish Wave Could Send Shares Above $31

In a scenario where Amprius’ outlook continues to improve, completing the initial eight-wave Elliott cycle would mark the end of the second wave in a much larger movement. In this scenario, AMPX is positioned to advance by an amount equal to the first cycle—about $23.62 in the base case—and can easily exceed that amount if the news cycle cooperates. The bull case requires flawless or nearly flawless execution, supported by quarterly outperformance, steadily improving guidance and positive contract flow.

Adding the $23.62 projection to the mid-October lows puts AMPX above $31, with an accelerating timeline for reaching that level. As it stands, the bull case puts the stock at the target level by mid-2027, and analyst trends support that outlook. MarketBeat data reveals increasing coverage, a strengthening Moderate Buy rating among 13 tracked analysts and more than 170% upside to the consensus target. Consensus remains below $22, but the trend matters, with high-end targets in the $30-to-$33 range, bracketing the Elliott Wave projection.

Institutional investors remain a critical factor. The group does not own much of this stock yet and sold in early Q4, contributing to the price downdraft. If institutions do not get on board, retail investors will struggle to keep the stock price elevated after a rebound. The good news is that triggers for institutional buying exist, including executing on its government grant, securing full NDAA compliance and ramping NDAA-compliant production. The company has secured NDAA-compliant components; now it needs to ramp capacity and capability across its portfolio. Only a portion of its roughly two dozen designs are currently compliant.

Amprius Technologies' $75 million Department of War grant was a game-changer for investors. The move validated government interest, shifting the narrative from speculation to “we definitely want this,” and set the stage for a significant capacity ramp in early 2028. The deal aims to refit an existing electric vehicle battery facility to make AMPX cells, targeting annual production of 12 million cells.

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3M's Legal Troubles Are Fading. Is the Best Part of Its Rally Still Ahead?

By Thomas Hughes. First Published: 10/21/2026.

3M (NYSE: MMM) stock has been in recovery mode since early 2024, when the company began emerging from legacy issues, including liabilities related to its decades of producing PFAS, the so-called “forever chemicals” linked to environmental contamination and health concerns, and the class-action lawsuits that followed. These issues continue to affect results, but their impact is fading and is already reflected in the outlook. The 2026 narrative is that the company will sustain growth, widen margins and return ample capital to investors while strengthening its outlook.

Key takeaways from 3M's Q3 report include numerous product wins across industries, highlighting the quality and diversity of its revenue streams. These wins include an expanded partnership with Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), which is relying on 3M for optical connectivity solutions and expects to spend billions on products over the next few years. While the deal includes potential dilution, with Amazon receiving warrants for approximately 1% of 3M stock, it also makes 3M a critical part of the data center supply chain and de-risks its long-term growth outlook.

Business is improving and legacy issues are fading, allowing 3M’s stock price to recover. MMM shares surged more than 5% after the Q3 report and are trading near long-term highs, putting them on track to set fresh highs before year-end. A move to new highs would confirm the pivot and set the stock up to retest its record highs in the coming year.

3M Grows and Widens Margins in Q3, Strengthening Capital Return Outlook

3M had a decent quarter, although it continues to contend with the impact of lost PFAS business. Headline growth came in at 1%, or 4.8% when adjusted for PFAS, underpinned by 3.3% organic growth and 0.9% growth from acquisitions. By segment, Safety and Industrial was strongest, growing 9.1%. That performance was offset by a smaller 0.4% increase in Transportation and Electronics and a 0.4% decline in Consumer. Regionally, Latin America was strongest, with growth of 11.1%, followed by 9% domestic growth. These gains were offset by contraction in the rest of the world.

Margin was the real strength, with adjusted operating margin expanding by 110 basis points and earnings growth accelerating. Adjusted earnings per share grew 12% versus the 4.8% top-line advance, exceeding MarketBeat’s reported consensus by 12 cents. More importantly, free cash flow improved significantly to approximately $1.2 billion, more than sufficient to maintain balance sheet health while returning capital to shareholders and investing in growth.

Capital returns are central to the stock price outlook, including dividends, dividend growth and share buybacks. The dividend yield is down from prior highs but remains attractive at about 1.8%. It is appropriately sized to cash flow, with shares near long-term highs. More importantly, the dividend is viewed as safe, with a payout ratio below 35% of earnings guidance and sufficient cash flow available to support share buybacks. Collectively, capital returns amounted to 50% of quarterly free cash flow, with buybacks reducing the share count by an average of 2.85% during the quarter and 2.55% year to date.

3M Is on Track for Sustainable Improvement in 2027

3M’s balance sheet is healthy and stable but thin on equity, with the long-term debt-to-equity ratio at approximately 4x due to legacy issues, restructuring and the company's commitment to capital returns. The potential catalyst is debt reduction. If free cash flow remains robust, 3M can pay down debt over the coming quarters, rebuilding equity while buybacks continue to reduce the share count. This gives shareholders a dual lever for value creation and gives institutions more reason to own the stock.

Analyst sentiment trends—including downgrades and price target reductions—reflect some caution, but they are offset by the overall bullish trend. MarketBeat data shows that analyst coverage is rising, with 15 analysts covering the stock. Consensus is Hold, although the bias is bullish. Price targets have also been rising, with the consensus projecting modest upside as of late October and the trend pointing toward record levels. The likely outcome is that upcoming results will affirm the business recovery, keeping analysts bullish and price targets moving higher.

Institutional Support Remains Solid, Limiting 3M’s Downside Risk

Institutional activity also reflects optimism about 3M’s long-term outlook. The group owns 65% of the shares, has maintained a steady position despite the company’s struggles and continues to accumulate shares. Activity is down compared with prior years—merely a trickle—but it is a bullish trickle that may strengthen given the business recovery. Short sellers do not appear to pose a significant risk at this time, with short interest below 2% of the float.

3M’s biggest risks are legal, including unsettled and disputed claims such as a PFAS settlement in Australia. The government is aggressively seeking more than $2 billion in damages, and the outcome remains uncertain. 3M has a solid case and may ultimately pay a much smaller amount.

Catalysts include guidance. The company raised its Q4 targets, expects full-year earnings well above consensus and remains cautious in its estimates. Headwinds or not, data centers are being built and need materials that only 3M can make.