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Editor, Stansberry Research

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No Hangover: Revisiting Microsoft One Week After Earnings

Reported by Chris Markoch. First Published: 8/7/2026.

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) reported earnings on July 29, and the stock has been on a tear ever since. The share price is up more than 25% since the report and turned positive for the year on Aug. 5.

The rally is a relief to shareholders who watched MSFT drop nearly 30% between October 2025 and March 2026. The company seemed to be at the center of nearly every headwind affecting technology stocks.

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  Concern over sustained hyperscaler spending? Check.

• Concern over too much hyperscaler spending? Check.

• Concern over the SaaS-pocalypse created by AI? Check.

• Concern over monetizing AI? Check, check, and check.

The company’s Q4 2026 earnings report addressed all the issues concerning investors and is changing the conversation around AI. But with the stock posting such strong gains in the week after earnings, some investors are questioning whether the stock is due for a pullback.

Microsoft's Earnings Reignite the AI Growth Story

The numbers behind the rally help explain why. Microsoft posted fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $90 billion, up 18% year over year, while Azure revenue climbed 43%. Full fiscal 2026 revenue topped $331 billion.

Microsoft 365 Copilot crossed 30 million paid seats, and the company's commercial remaining performance obligation, which is essentially its contracted backlog, grew sharply.

That combination gave investors something they hadn't seen in months: proof that AI spending is translating into revenue.

Is MSFT Stock Moving Too Far, Too Fast?

The cautious argument is that MSFT doesn’t typically make parabolic moves like this. The stock has made moves of 25% or more in the last five years, but it’s usually a process that unfolds over a month or longer. The strength of this move in such a short time is an outlier.

The rebuttal is that the depth and duration of the stock’s pullback were atypical. Many analysts would also have said it wasn’t merited. There’s also the technical fact that, based on the relative strength index (RSI), MSFT isn’t overbought yet.

Still, believing that this time is different is rarely a good way to build an investing strategy. MSFT may be due for a pullback. But the long-term outlook remains strong, which is why investors should welcome—and be ready to buy—any pronounced dip in MSFT.

Microsoft Is Locking in the AI Infrastructure Buildout

In addition to its own strong earnings report, Microsoft is benefiting from a halo effect from other reports. For example, Chevron (NYSE: CVX) reported earnings on July 31. A highlight of the report was Project Kilby, a 20-year, take-or-pay power agreement with Microsoft covering 2.67 gigawatts of behind-the-meter capacity in West Texas.

Chevron said the project is moving toward a final investment decision later this year and expects mid-teens returns on the investment. CEO Mike Wirth framed the broader quarter as a continuation of the company's consistent strategy and capital discipline, while Chevron's New Energies president, Jeff Gustavson, noted that few competing data center power projects have locked in long-term customer commitments as Kilby has.

Chevron isn’t speculatively building power capacity and hoping a hyperscaler shows up later. Microsoft is already the counterparty on a two-decade contract, which is about as far from speculative as an energy deal gets.

Chevron isn't alone in this. Constellation Energy (NASDAQ: CEG) has its own long-term power arrangement tied to Microsoft. The deal is anchored by the restart of the Crane Clean Energy Center, which is under a 20-year agreement to supply Microsoft's data centers once it returns to service.

Between Chevron's gas-fired capacity and Constellation's nuclear restart, Microsoft is locking down power from two very different corners of the energy sector. That is a sign that the demand behind its AI buildout is broad enough to require diversified supply rather than a single bet.

Strong AI Spending Comes With a Free Cash Flow Trade-Off

Microsoft delivered $19.6 billion in free cash flow (FCF) in its latest quarter, down 23% year over year (YOY). It also continues a pattern that was in place in the third quarter.

The good news is that Microsoft continues to maintain positive FCF. That's the concern—perhaps overstated—with a company like Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) that is taking on debt to support its AI infrastructure spending, as well as companies like Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) that reported negative FCF.

The bad news is that it makes MSFT look expensive under some discounted cash flow (DCF) models that prioritize FCF. That's the opposite of what fueled the stock’s rally in 2025.

What Will Drive Microsoft Stock From Here?

Microsoft's own guidance adds another layer to the debate. Management now expects roughly $175 billion in fiscal 2027 capital expenditures, and it's changing how it accounts for some of that spending.

Data centers and office buildings will now be depreciated over 25 years instead of 15, and more future leases will be booked as operating leases rather than finance leases. That's an accounting shift, but it will affect how the FCF picture looks going forward. It’s worth watching whether analysts treat it as a genuine improvement or as a way to flatter the numbers.

For investors, the setup is straightforward, even if the stock's next move isn't. The Chevron and Constellation deals suggest the demand side of the AI story is real and multi-year in nature. The FCF trend suggests the cost side is real, too, and it isn't going away next quarter.

Both things can be true at once and probably are. Balancing those truths, rather than focusing on any single number, is likely to define how MSFT trades over the next two quarters.

Dear Reader,

I hope you have enjoyed the relative stability of the stock market during first half of 2026 to the fullest.

Because two massive economic forces are colliding in real-time, and the result is set to upend everything we thought we knew about investing.

The first force: We're living through the fastest rate of technological change in human history. AI isn't just disrupting a few tech companies — it's threatening to make the world we know unrecognizable in just a few years.

The second force: Trade relationships and peace deals that have held our global economy together for decades are hanging by a thread. If that thread breaks, we're looking at an era of chaos that will make 2008 look like a minor correction.

I call what's coming The Age of Chaos.

And almost no one I talk to is prepared for it. Not yet anyway.

The Age of Chaos isn’t just another market cycle where you will eventually see the light at the end of the tunnel.

The Age of Chaos is a fundamental reshaping of the economic order. And when the dust settles, we'll be managing our money in a completely different investment landscape.

The wealth transfers will be historic.

People who are wealthy today could be penniless when this decade ends. While those who position themselves correctly right now could build massive wealth.

The great restructuring of the stock market is already happening:

Reliable, household-name companies that fund managers have loved for years are getting crushed in 2026:

• Intuit: -57%
• Boston Scientific: -49%
• Tractor Supply: -40%

Meanwhile, a surge of dynamic companies positioned for this new world are exploding higher:

• Sandisk: +573%
• Rackspace: +444%
• Atomera: +262%

This isn't random market volatility. This is the beginning of an irreversible economic division that's just getting underway.

And here's the uncomfortable truth:Many of the companies that could fail in The Age of Chaos may already be sitting in your portfolio right now.

Names that have seemed untouchable throughout history. Names that every "expert" tells you to buy and hold forever. Names that could rob you of your hard-earned savings if you don't act soon.

But I didn't reach out to you today to spread doom and gloom. I wrote because there's a way to protect yourself and potentially profit from what's coming.

It starts with understanding which companies are on the brink right now... and which are positioned to thrive in The Age of Chaos.

I'll show you the names and tickers of specific companies I believe you should sell before they crater, including some that might shock you. These aren't fly-by-night operations. These are companies that have been market darlings for years – and are still overweight in many investors’ accounts.

More importantly, I'll share the names and tickers of the companies you can upgrade to that could multiply your money in the coming months. Companies that aren't just surviving this transformation but driving it.

For instance, while everyone's focused on whether Tesla will get a much-needed lifeline from Space X, I've identified a little-known company that was just tapped as Nvidia's self-driving partner, already putting them miles ahead of Tesla in the autonomous driving race. (Get the ticker FREE here.)

I've also got details on what could be the biggest megadeal in the AI space this year – a potential rupturing of the company referred to as "the unseen winner of the AI race." This company could soon split up into three of the hottest new AI stocks of 2026. If it does, all you have to do to automatically get shares in all of them is buy this stock NOW. It's a once-in-a-blue-moon opportunity you do not want to let pass you by.

I'm giving away all of this analysis completely freein this broadcast. No membership required. No credit card. Just the unvarnished truth about what I see coming and how to position yourself for it.

The Age of Chaos isn't something that might happen. It's already underway.

Knowing the names and tickers of these stocks could mean the difference between winning and losing in the months ahead.

Stream my free presentation today right here– and get all my carefully selected buys and sells now.

Sincerely,

Marc Chaikin
Founder, Chaikin Analytics

Palantir Soars 30% After Blockbuster Earnings—Is the Rally Just Getting Started?

By Chris Markoch. First Published: 8/5/2026.

Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) just had one of its best days since 2024. The stock closed up 30% on Aug. 4, capping a session that ranks among its strongest in years. The move began after the company delivered a blockbuster earnings report following the market close on Aug. 3.

That wasn’t news by itself. Palantir has delivered strong reports in the last several quarters. Often, it hasn’t mattered to investors, who have lumped Palantir in with the rest of the artificial intelligence (AI) trade.

The strong move after earnings may be a sign that investors are finally seeing what Palantir bulls have been saying for months. PLTR was being dragged down by misplaced sentiment, but its latest report shows that consistent outperformance is getting tough to ignore.

The Third Time Was the Charm

Co-founder and CEO Alex Karp described the quarter as “otherworldly.” That may rub some investors the wrong way, but it’s hard to overstate the strength of Palantir’s Q2 2026 report.

Overall revenue grew 93% year-over-year, and the company’s Rule of 40 score climbed to 155. Adjusted free cash flow came in at $1.22 billion, representing a 63% margin.

The company closed 220 deals of at least $1 million, 98 deals of at least $5 million, and 73 deals of at least $10 million. It reported total contract value (TCV) of $3.3373 billion, an increase of 49% year-over-year.

With a line of sight to future revenue like that, it’s not surprising that Palantir also raised its guidance for the rest of the year. The company has done the same for several quarters. The difference this time is that the market seems to be listening.

The Surprise That Wasn’t a Surprise

The morning after earnings, several analysts pointed to the strong growth in Palantir’s commercial business as a “surprise” in the report. U.S. commercial revenue grew 149% year-over-year and 28% quarter-over-quarter to $764 million.

The only surprising thing about those growth figures is that analysts were surprised. In Q1 2026, Palantir reported U.S. commercial revenue grew 133% year-over-year (YOY) and 18% quarter-over-quarter to $595 million. In Q4 2025, the company reported the same growth metrics at 137% YOY and 28% quarter-over-quarter, respectively.

Commercial growth is a criticism of Palantir that dates back to 2022 or even earlier. The thinking is that the company has been too reliant on business from the U.S. government and specifically the Pentagon, which can arguably be lumpy.

But the commercial side of the business has been growing at an outsized rate for several quarters. Palantir’s AIPCon event is, at its core, a platform for its enterprise customers to explain how Palantir has transformed their businesses.

To feign surprise over the number is like being surprised by the strength of Apple’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) Services business. Palantir hasn’t been hiding the ball, but now investors are seeing the numbers for what they are.

PLTR Faces a Critical Resistance Level

The strong move in PLTR has pushed the stock toward the $160 level, which served as resistance at two points in 2026. If the stock can push past that level, there is a path to reverse all of its year-to-date losses.

In its favor, despite the strength of this move, PLTR is just now approaching a level on the relative strength index (RSI) that would indicate overbought conditions. Also supporting a higher high is the fact that the move is occurring on strong volume.

However, the other side of the argument is that a parabolic move such as this is frequently due to short covering. If that's the case, the covering will exhaust itself pretty quickly, which could cause the stock to drift lower.

One key to watch now will be analyst sentiment. Since the report, the Palantir analyst forecasts on MarketBeat show that two analysts have weighed in, with Piper Sandler reiterating its Overweight call and $230 price target. The consensus price target has ticked up to $190.73 as of this writing.

The Long-Term Outlook for Palantir Hasn’t Changed

In the first seven months of the year, traders who bet against Palantir were rewarded despite two earnings reports that were as strong as the one on Aug. 3. However, the Q2 report is a reminder that it takes only one report to change an outlook.

Palantir reminded investors—not traders—that it’s a one-of-one company that shouldn’t be lumped in with the other names in the AI software debate. The firm will have critics and doubters, and one day, its growth will start to normalize.

But that day wasn’t yesterday. Nor is it likely to come for several quarters. That doesn’t mean the stock won’t face hurdles, but the report did nothing to squelch the bullish long-term case for Palantir.