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I hesitated to even send you this.

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Regards,

Addison Wiggin

Founder, Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

Cloudflare’s Beat-and-Raise Quarter Puts Its AI Edge Story in Focus

By Thomas Hughes. First Published: 8/7/2026.

Cloudflare (NYSE: NET) is handling AI in a way the market increasingly favors, and investors are rewarding the stock. While heavily exposed to AI infrastructure and serving as a focal point for global internet traffic, it is not a hyperscaler. Instead, it is a well-positioned service provider with a critical advantage: its distributed network of datacenters, which are built and located differently from those of traditional cloud providers.

While hyperscalers provide full-stack capabilities that underpin AI training and inference—alongside much of the internet’s functionality—Cloudflare focuses on edge architecture for routing, security and serverless execution. It operates in its own layer atop the hyperscale universe, enabling the lightning-fast speeds required for real-time AI development and applications.

Cloudflare is growing profitably. Although cash flow is temporarily impaired by investments, the company continues to expand without leaning heavily on debt or drawing down its cash pile. In fact, it is doing the opposite. That puts Cloudflare in a unique position and one that the market likes.

Cloudflare’s Beat-and-Raise Quarter Resets Expectations

Cloudflare had a solid Q2, growing revenue by 35.9% year over year (YOY) to $696.1 million. Growth accelerated from previous periods, and revenue outperformed consensus estimates despite the high bar analysts had set. Strength was driven by new clients, large customers and developers, with total clients, large clients and developers all reaching record levels. Details emerging from the report include a 24% compound annual growth rate among large clients and expanding total addressable market projections. The company currently sees a path to a 60% larger market within two years, setting the stage for sustained, high-level growth for the foreseeable future.

Margin is another area of strength. The company’s gross margin contracted but was largely offset by non-cash adjustments, operational improvements and non-operating income, leaving adjusted earnings in healthy condition. Adjusted operating income grew by 32%, trailing the top line by only 390 basis points, while net income increased by more than 43%. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose 38% YOY, outperforming estimates by more than 700 basis points and prompting management to raise its guidance.

Guidance is the catalyst for higher share prices. As strong as the Q2 results were, the guidance was even stronger, pointing to accelerating and sustained growth over time. The low end of the Q3 and full-year revenue ranges, as well as the EPS target, came in well above consensus. Given the momentum shown in Q2, including the rise of agentic traffic—which now accounts for more than 50% of Cloudflare’s traffic—guidance is likely to prove conservative.

And the analyst response was overwhelmingly bullish. Analysts cited the largest revenue beat in 18 quarters and the largest dollar beat in the company’s history, alleviating fears of AI disruption for this enterprise software stock.

As important as Cloudflare’s distributed network is to its outlook, the software stack is what makes it work. The opportunity today lies in Cloudflare’s ability to monetize agentic traffic, an area in which the company is already well established.

The initial reaction included numerous price-target increases, with a new high target set near $400. While the consensus price target continues to lag the stock’s performance, the trend is supportive, with the high end suggesting more than 35% upside relative to the pre-release close.

Given expectations for future results, analysts’ trends will likely remain bullish through year-end, underpinning the stock’s price action.

Cloudflare Surges, and Risks Rise With It

The stock price action is bullish. Cloudflare reached a fresh high over the summer and is gaining momentum in Q3. The Q2 results triggered a double-digit price surge, pushing the stock to record levels and well on its way toward analysts’ high-end target. The risk is that Cloudflare’s stock has risen too high, too quickly and may consolidate before advancing further. In this scenario, NET could pull back to $300 to close the price gap it formed before resuming its upward momentum.

Cloudflare’s catalysts include a suite of tools for tracking and monetizing agentic AI traffic, as well as continued developer adoption. The company’s distribution network and serverless functionality enable the cost-effective deployment of routine AI agents. Cloudflare boasts more than 4.5 million active developers, and that number is growing each quarter.

Cloudflare’s biggest risk is its importance to the internet. Handling an estimated 20% of global internet traffic, the company represents a single point of failure with wide-ranging implications. With cyber threats growing as quickly as agentic traffic—and Cloudflare among the most attractive targets—the threat is real. Valuation is another concern. Trading at more than 250 times the low end of its guidance, Cloudflare is priced for perfection and cannot afford a single misstep.

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Meta’s Earnings Drop Shows Wall Street Wants More Than Ad Growth

Authored by Leo Miller. Article Posted: 8/5/2026.

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META)’ Q2 earnings distinctly disappointed investors, as demonstrated by the stock’s 8% decline after the report.

Wall Street analysts did not react well to the report either, with many substantially lowering their price targets afterward.

These reductions were also more significant than those following past earnings reports.

However, analysts have not abandoned this Magnificent Seven giant by any stretch of the imagination, with most still pointing to substantial upside ahead.

Meta’s Q2 Report: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Meta managed to beat sales estimates in Q2, with revenue rising 28% year over year (YOY). Despite the beat, there were few positive aspects to Meta’s report beyond its revenue performance.

Meta posted a steep earnings-per-share (EPS) miss, driven largely by legal issues that surfaced earlier in 2026 and resulted in a multibillion-dollar expense. To make matters worse, the company had to pay for its recent layoffs, incurring more than $1 billion in severance expenses that also put substantial downward pressure on EPS. Although adjusting for these expenses makes Meta’s EPS result look much less disappointing, these are still real costs for the company.

The company indicated that substantial legal expenses could persist, noting that its youth-related legal issues could result in a material loss.

The negatives did not end there. The midpoint of Meta’s revenue guidance also came in below expectations, an outcome that is particularly unfavorable given the company’s massive AI spending. Additionally, Meta beat sales estimates by the smallest margin among hyperscalers in Q2.

Meta continues to grow at an annual rate of more than 25%, a strong pace for a company of its size. However, with such substantial AI spending helping drive this growth, the market is unlikely to give the company the benefit of the doubt when key metrics fall short. Analyst price targets indicate that sell-side analysts may also be reducing the amount of leeway they are willing to give Meta.

Meta Price Targets Take a Big Hit

The MarketBeat consensus price target for Meta sits near $790, a figure that implies significant upside of more than 30%. However, the picture looks less aggressive when measured against analyst targets updated after the company’s report. Other current target averages sit closer to the mid-$700s, implying upside in the high-20% range rather than the low-30% range.

This shift comes as analysts substantially lowered their targets after Meta’s report. The average price target, based on MarketBeat’s historical data, decreased by more than 10%, marking a larger decline than the shares themselves. Some of Meta’s most bullish analysts cut their price targets by more than $100, including Rosenblatt and Susquehanna. Rosenblatt previously had a $1,015 target on Meta but lowered it by 13% to $883. Susquehanna’s reduction was even more drastic, with its target falling 28% from $900 to $650.

Analysts have often moved their price targets along a trajectory similar to Meta’s post-earnings price action. However, in many of these instances, price target movements have been relatively favorable, rising more when Meta gains and falling less when it declines.

It is noteworthy that the percentage decrease in targets was slightly greater than the decline in the shares. This indicates a greater deterioration in analyst sentiment after the report than in past quarters. Still, analyst ratings provide some solace, with Meta having 39 Buy, eight Hold and zero Sell ratings.

The Waiting Game for Non-Advertising Growth Catalysts Continues

The market holds Meta to a high standard, especially regarding growth, as its AI investments are intended to provide additional tailwinds. At this point, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Meta to justify its AI spending based on advertising growth alone. The company needs alternative catalysts to restore confidence among many investors.

The good news is that Meta is working to pull several growth levers, although many of these initiatives remain in their early stages and have yet to produce tangible results. One potential avenue is selling its excess compute to third parties experiencing strong demand for AI services.

Additionally, Meta is working to monetize its Muse Spark 1.1 model, which was released in July. This marks the first time Meta will attempt to monetize a model directly through token sales. Meta is expanding access to Muse Spark 1.1 through popular model-distribution channels such as OpenRouter.

Lastly, Meta recently released subscription offerings that could drive meaningful growth if they gain significant adoption among Facebook and Instagram users.

There is still reason for optimism around Meta stock. However, investors should weigh the legal risks facing the company, as well as the possibility that its non-advertising growth may take substantial time to materialize.