The Rumors About Elon’s Next Move Are Spreading Fast (From The Oxford Club)

Midland, Texas-based AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) is facing a new headwind, compounding investors’ concerns over potential share dilution, stiff competition from SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), and ongoing volatility that continues to contribute to elevated short interest.

A securities fraud class-action lawsuit has been filed on behalf of investors against the direct-to-cellular (D2C) space-based cellular broadband network provider.

The legal action—a coordinated effort, with filings being coordinated by multiple law firms, including Rosen Law, Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd, which initiated the suit, and others—threatens to present AST SpaceMobile with another challenge that could affect the company’s bottom line following six consecutive earnings misses.

Class-Action Lawsuit Alleges Misleading Statements on Capital Needs and Competition

Filed in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas, the lawsuit covers a class period of March 4, 2025, through July 15, 2026, for purchasers or acquirers of AST SpaceMobile securities.

According to the class action, the company made false and/or misleading statements and failed to disclose that it was increasing capital requirements that were likely to increase AST SpaceMobile’s debt load and share dilution with greater frequency and at greater scale than was signaled to investors.

Specifically, the complaint alleges that the company overstated the sufficiency of its capital and liquidity position to achieve strategic and business goals. Additionally, the suit claims that AST SpaceMobile overstated the durability of its competitive position in the low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite D2C market, while experiencing slow user adoption in the United States and Japan, resulting in materially false and misleading public statements.

At the root of the case are three separate $1 billion convertible-note offerings announced in October 2025, February 2026, and July 2026. The complaint alleges that the offerings undercut prior assurances about the company’s capital position and were followed by same-week declines in share value.

The final alleged corrective event was the July 15 offering announcement that corresponded with ASTS shares falling 17% on July 16.

According to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, any investor who purchased or acquired ASTS during that window can seek appointment as lead plaintiff in the class-action lawsuit, the deadline for which is Nov. 13.

Less than half of securities class-action lawsuits make it to trial. However, if the legal action is able to avoid a motion to dismiss, there is a chance AST SpaceMobile will be on the hook for a settlement.

But investors—whether current shareholders or plaintiffs—shouldn’t expect a speedy resolution, as securities litigation can take years to resolve.

Lawsuit Adds to AST SpaceMobile’s Existing Volatility and Execution Risks

Whether or not AST SpaceMobile violated federal securities laws is a matter for the court. Investors familiar with the company should be accustomed to the stock’s inherent volatility, though.

ASTS currently sports a beta of 2.74, meaning that shares are 174% more volatile than the broad market.

In the past month alone, the stock has experienced three double-digit peak-to-trough gains and losses. Year to date (YTD), that number increases to 16, including extremes like a gain of more than 108% from May 5 to the ASTS’ all-time high (ATH) on May 28, and a subsequent loss of more than 60% from its ATH to its YTD low on July 29.

That inherent volatility is driven, at least in part, by the company’s massive cash burn rate, estimated at $1.5 billion and $1.8 billion annually as AST SpaceMobile aggressively scales its constellation of BlueBird satellites.

Other factors include a cloudy launch schedule. Its goal of putting 45 BlueBirds into LEO by the end of 2026 has already been pushed back to early 2027 as the company has experienced launch delays and mishaps, including April’s failed deployment due to a Blue Origin rocket leaving BlueBird 7 in an unusable orbit, further emphasizing the volatility of high-risk, high-growthspace stocks.

Wall Street Sees Upside, But Short Interest and Insider Selling Remain Elevated

Together, that volatility, dilution, and subsequent class-action lawsuit have contributed to mixed analyses on Wall Street.

ASTS currently carries a consensus Hold rating, with only six of the 13 analysts covering the stock assigning it a Buy rating.

However, the price target implies nearly 40% upside potential.

Institutional buyers have been piling money into the stock.

Over the past 12 months, ASTS has seen institutional inflows of $2.42 billion against outflows of just over $411 million.

But insider selling and current short interest paint a contrarian picture. In the past year, insiders have liquidated nearly $452 million worth of shares while only acquiring $806,470 worth.

Meanwhile, short interest of 21.2% of the float—or around 65.3 million shares of the more than 389 million shares outstanding—is concerningly high.

Read this article online ›

 

 

Same book, different price (From Profits Run)

October is almost here, making it a great time for some scary good buys. These are scary good because of the tailwinds, growth potential, and chart price action, which suggests explosive upside that could be realized before year’s end.

The catalysts for these moves, if they aren't already well underway, will come over the following weeks as the underlying companies report earnings.

Advanced Micro Devices Breaks Out

Advanced Micro Devices' (NASDAQ: AMD) story is unchanged: MI450 is rolling out, demand is expected to be hot due to the Helios architecture, and forward consensus estimates fail to reflect the potential. The narrative, however, is advancing, with the stock price moving to fresh highs and signaling the trend's continuation. In this case, there is a fundamental driver, but this is a purely technical play, as the market is already moving. The critical takeaway is the upside potential: Advanced Micro Devices' breakout suggests the summer consolidation may be the halfway point or lower in a much larger movement.

The base-case forecast is a move matching the March-June rally, about $368, projected from either the low or high end of the consolidation range. This puts AMD shares in the $828 to $925 range within a few months of the breakout, well above most analysts' targets. The bull case, however, which appears to be the more likely scenario, is that AMD shares could advance by the percentage gain from March to June, which is approximately 195%. In this scenario, AMD’s share price could reach $1350 or higher, just above AMD’s highest analyst target, set by analysts at Robert W. Baird over the summer.

Credo Technologies Is Rebounding

Credo Technologies' (NASDAQ: CRDO) summer price pullback was deeper than expected but not a deal-breaker for bulls. The late-September narrative is that the floor was found and a rebound is underway. Active signals include a growing, increasingly large and stronger market, as shown by volume gains and MACD convergence. CRDO shares could retest their current highs or potentially achieve new highs soon.

While Credo faces its share of hurdles, it is established as AI-critical for today, with a pipeline of AI-critical photonics and optics technology for tomorrow. Analyst sentiment trends reflect the summer correction, including some price target reductions, but remain otherwise bullish for the stock. Consensus is stabilizing around the $260-$270 region, aligning with existing highs and potential for over 30% upside. The next quarterly results could outperform, extending the trends in business, sentiment, and stock prices.

Bloom Energy Pops a Can of AI Energy Strength

Bloom Energy (NASDAQ: BE) is a name investors should not ignore.

The once-struggling fuel cell manufacturer is now AI-critical, helping bypass energy infrastructure bottlenecks. Its story is that hyperscalers across the industry have validated the tech, its scalability, and orders are rolling in.

Upcoming results will likely show strength, beat estimates, and lead to higher forecasts. The key detail is that Bloom Energy fuel cells are available today, produce power today, and enable AI today, not years down the road, like most other solutions.

Target Aims at Full Price Recovery

Target (NYSE: TGT) isn’t the pariah it was a few years ago, having turned the corner from missteps to a new growth era. What this company has is resilient consumer habits, a holiday-season tailwind that should accelerate sales, and reclaimed market share. Target is regaining lost consumers, proving its brand power, and may lead the industry in growth through year’s end.

As it stands, analysts forecast only modest, mid-single-digit growth in the back half, but with improved margins and accelerated earnings power. Outperformance, specifically on the bottom line, will help accelerate the stock’s revaluation, which has substantial room to run. Trading at 16x to 17x the current-year outlook, TGT has the potential to double in price in the near- to mid-term and then continue rising over the next few years.

LightPath Technologies Turns a Corner, Provides Strategic Advantages

LightPath Technologies (NASDAQ: LPTH) is a speculation on domestic supply chains, defense, and the strategic advantages of its technology. The company makes high-performance optical lenses and components for infrared and precision applications, now focusing on drones and defense. Key details include the divestiture of its China-based manufacturing operations, an intensified focus on domestic manufacturing, and the nature of its products.

Many LightPath products use proprietary glass that enables lighter products made from non-Chinese materials, making them better for aerospace and drone applications while strengthening compliance with the National Defense Authorization Act. Coincidentally, the stock price is at the bottom of a range, set up for a rebound that could add 50% before hitting the first major resistance target.

Read this article online ›